Week 10 DFS Money Plays
13 November 2020 Fantasy Football
Good morning, and happy Friday fantasy fans! To close out our week of constant hustle and bustle, I’m going to give you my first ever DFS article. I’ve been kicking around the idea of sharing my DFS opinions for a while now and why not do something scary on this Friday the Thirteenth, in the year 2020 of all years? So without further ado, here are my best starts for Week 10 of the DFS season.
Jared Goff vs. Seattle Seahawks (DK: 6500; FD: 7400)
An average play on most weeks (QB19 to this point in the season), Jared Goff gets to go up against a defense that added Jamal Adams in the offseason and still remains the worst passing defense, by a large margin, this year. According to ESPN projections, Goff is slated to have a floor of 17.8 points with a ceiling of over 30. Having two weeks to prepare for this game and for the price of Goff this week, he’s worth the risk.
Carson Wentz @ New York Giants (DK: 5900; FD: 7500)
If there was ever going to be a “get right” game for Carson Wentz, this needs to be it. If you follow me on Twitter, you know I’ve been saying that the Eagles are getting healthy at the right time. Receiver Jalen Reagor came back and caught a touchdown pass last week, Dallas Goedert came back the week before the BYE, Miles Sanders is slated to return, Alshon Jeffery is projected to return, Isaac Seumalo is projected to return and all of this while getting to play a Giants team that the Eagles have beat in 7 straight contests. Also worth noting, Carson Wentz scored 28.76 points against the Giants last time they played without any of these players.
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Los Angeles Chargers (DK: 5600; FD: 6800)
Any other year I’d be skeptical to start a rookie quarterback against the Los Angeles Chargers defense. However, with the departure of slot man Desmond King, the injuries to Derwin James and Chris Harris Jr., a defense who hasn’t held an opponent to under 20 points since the first week of the season and only having a combined total of 7 forced turnovers on the year, I’m actually comfortable starting Tua this week. Adding to my confidence in the opponent, Tua played a good game against a formidable defense in Arizona last week and still completed 71% of his passes for 2 touchdowns and cleaned up his turnover problem from the week prior as well.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: 7900; FD: 8400)
If you’re looking for the big money stack, is there a better combination than Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams right now? Over the course of the last nine weeks Jacksonville has allowed the third most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks, only furthering the narrative that ARod is your big money player to splurge on. One thing I would be worried about is the high play percentage that ARod will have this week in an obvious plus matchup. Additionally, if the Packers get out to an early lead they may opt to go to a more run heavy game flow that could impact Rodgers’ fantasy production. However, after big wins against the Texans, Vikings and 49ers in which he’s averaged 26 FPPG, and having just 3 turnovers on the season, look for Rodgers to be a locked and loaded producer in DFS this week.
5 Players considered “GREAT” plays: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson
James Robinson @ Green Bay Packers (DK: 6600; FD: 7300)
Considered an “average” play in both Draft Kings and FanDuel, Robinson has been anything but average this season. The RB4 has produced 138 fantasy points and gets to go against a Packers defense allowing the second most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Averaging 23.5 carries, 109 yards and a touchdown per game over his last two, all while averaging 4.8 yards per carry and adding another score through the air, James Robinson is still a bargain play in both formats! He has averaged 21.3 FPPG over his last 3 games but be mindful of his potential high play percentage this week though.
Antonio Gibson @ Detroit Lions (DK: 5600; FD: 6100)
Finally, the WFT has found its 3-down back that can be fantasy relevant. Well, why are they using JD McKissic so much? Gibson struggles in pass protection and likely saw limited snaps in the game due to the team trailing the Giants for most of the game in Week 9. This should not be the case this week against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are dealing with a sick Matthew Stafford and no Kenny Golladay for what seems like the tenth straight week. They’ll likely turn to Antonio Gibson this week to shoulder the load coming off a game in which the Football Team turned the ball over five times and should be in a more positive game script against a team giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Leonard Fournette @ Carolina Panthers (DK: 5500; FD: 6400)
Was there a bigger embarrassment to fantasy lineups in week 9 than those plays from the Buccaneers backfield? Probably not. However, I look for this offense to have a “get right” game against a Panthers defense that is 21st in the league in total defense allowed. Coming off the worst loss of his career, I like for a motivated Tom Brady to come out and get the team going early. If this positive game script comes to fruition, look for the primary benefactor to be Leonard Fournette as he has chipped away at Ronald Jones’ playing time every game this season.
5 Players considered “GREAT” plays: Aaron Jones, Antonio Gibson, D’Andre Swift, Kenyan Drake, Mike Davis
Davante Adams vs Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: 9000; FD: 9500)
This is the obvious stack if you’re going to “buy up” for Aaron Rodgers at the quarterback position. These prices may cause some salary constraints further along in the lineup building process but is it worth it? Well, if you’ve read my start/sit articles you realize that Adams has averaged astronomical numbers since his return in week 6. Over the last 4 weeks, he has numbers that are ranked as WR1 by an astounding 21 points. 17 receptions, 226 yards, 4 touchdowns and 56.1 fantasy points over his last 2 games makes the price tag for Adams still seem a bit low.
DeVante Parker vs Los Angeles Chargers (DK: 5000; FD: 6000)
This will be the obvious stack for a Tua Tagovailoa team. Over the last week, Preston Williams has been hobbled by injury and the obvious plus in value will go to DeVante Parker as Tua still hasn’t found the chemistry with Mike Gesicki. Tua’s first game with Parker did not go well as he saw just 2 targets and finished the day with 1 catch, 3 yards and a touchdown. However, last week Parker saw 7 targets translating to 6 catches for 64 yards and the one missed target was an overthrow for what would’ve been a long touchdown. Look for the chemistry to only increase between the young receiver and his rookie quarterback in a matchup that could translate to a MASSIVE amount of points for Parker.
Travis Fulgham @ New York Giants (DK: 6400; FD: 6800)
The obvious stack for Carson Wentz is going to be Travis Fulgham. Over the last three games, Fulgham has managed to average 19.9 fantasy points per game and has quickly become Wentz’s favorite target. As I stated earlier in the Carson Wentz portion, the Eagles are getting healthy and getting a lot of weapons back in their arsenal. With this, you may see it as a downside as Fulgham won’t be the only target on the field worth throwing to. However, I think this gives Fulgham more of an opportunity to see one-on-one coverage as the defense will have to shift coverage to the other weapons as well. I don’t believe that Alshon Jeffery’s return will cut into Fulghatron’s playing time and I expect to see more of the same from him on the field.
Brandin Cooks @ Cleveland Browns (DK: 5600; FD: 6300)
Over the course of the season, it’s no secret that the Browns’ secondary has held them back from exploding onto the scene. On top of the injuries sustained to this point in the season, the replacements have been downright bad. Currently allowing the fourth most points to opposing wide receivers, it doesn’t look to get any easier for the Browns this Sunday against Deshaun Watson and the Houston offense. Brandin Cooks is riding a hot streak of elite fantasy games and should be able to maintain that fire this week. Averaging 21.3 points over his last four games, and with the expected absence of David Johnson with him not being able to clear the NFL concussion protocol, look for Cooks to continue his streak of solid fantasy performance.
11 Players considered “GREAT” plays: Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Brandin Cooks, DJ Moore, Sterling Shepard, Josh Reynolds, Jakeem Grant, Stefon Diggs, Chase Claypool, John Brown
I’m not going to do a full write up on each tight end this week, as the elite are either hurt or on BYE so we’ll be chasing touchdown upside on all of these individuals. However, these are the players that I like given their snap share, quarterback play, play percentage and most touchdown upside for Week 10.
Hunter Henry @ Miami Dolphins (DK: 4100; FD: 5500)
-Target Share/Touchdown Upside
Logan Thomas @ Detroit Lions (DK: 3300; FD: 4900)
-Alex Smith/Snap Count/Target share w/ Alex Smith
Dallas Goedert @ New York Giants (DK: 4200; FD: 5800)
-Target Share/potential negative game script
Austin Hooper vs. Houston Texans (DK: 3900; FD: 5100)
-OBJ Injury/Target uptick/PENDING BAKER MAYFIELD HEALTH!
5 Plays considered “GREAT” plays: Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Jordan Akins, Noah Fant
Saints D/ST vs San Francisco 49ers (DK: 3000; FD: 4500)
-Injured SF Offense/Coming off big Tampa Bay performance
Eagles D/ST @ New York Giants (DK: 3600; FD: 4600)
-Daniel Jones turnovers
Lions D/ST vs Washington Football Team (DK: 2600; FD: 3900)
-Bad WFT Offensive Line/Alex Smith 4 turnovers last week
5 Plays considered “GREAT” this week: Dolphins D/ST, Giants D/ST, Rams D/ST, Raiders D/ST, Panthers D/ST